Predictable given the mood of the public-Scott Brown’s election and the resulting likely (if temporary) demise of comprehensive health care reform: Putting your personal politics aside for a moment, imagine you are President Obama, Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid – it’s okay, it’s just for a minute. Obama should have become more involved, and Congress should have moved faster – before the Democrats lost their filibuster-proof majority.

Predictable given geological and infrastructure facts-Haiti’s disaster: Construction with few building standards built on a fault line. An airport with such small capacity that only a few planes can be there at any one time. Add one (predictable) earthquake and we have the tragedy we see today. Worst thing? It could happen again.

Predictable given economic facts and indicators-The collapse of the housing market and the too-big-to-fail banks and our subsequent economic woes. As I’ve mentioned in this forum in the past, my father, a retired schoolteacher, accurately predicted the housing market collapse a couple of years before it happened. It’s hard to believe bankers, economists and politicians lacked the same data.

Predictable given clearly inferior engineering combined with neighborhoods below sea level-By now, what we knew and didn’t act on following Hurricane Katrina should be obvious. But guess what? We still haven’t fixed the problem with the levies, even as we rebuild below sea level in New Orleans.

Those are political issues that affect the world. Complacency and inaction are enormous factors in business, too. Consultatively, vSA always urges business leaders to step outside the box to think the big thoughts and then to act on them as needed. We all know how easy it is each day to pursue the latest deal, address the most recent 200 emails and just try to stay afloat keeping up with the urgent. However, it is hardly cliche to remember this: Do not overlook the important in favor of the merely urgent.

Thoughts, examples, strategies?

American Public Media’s August 3rd Marketplace show featured a segment on navigating the upturn, in which Standard & Poors Chief Economist David Wyss says mistiming the end of the recession can be a fatal mistake. He warns that “The danger is that in some industries if you sort of stay in self-protect mode too long, you’re going to miss the upturn completely and end up losing market share. More companies go broke in the upturn than they do during in the recession.” However, he then goes on to say that he doesn’t think the fabled upturn has arrived yet. Hmmph, he’s probably right.

So, what’s a company to do? We ask our clients to separate risks too big to assume in uncertain times from sensible business moves that have a way-better-than-even chance of paying off. As a marketing firm, we’ve watched with dismay as some clients have chopped budgets and then complained about anemic sales. (In case you wonder, we ourselves have navigated through client budget cuts by taking on a larger number of clients, including a number of new ones, balancing out the reality that most companies are spending less than they did in 2008, and in some cases, probably less than in 1908.) We’ve used more media relations and other PR, more Web surveys, more grassroots marketing, and a lot fewer big splashy campaigns to get the job done for clients.

Where one Downturn Downfall comes in, we believe, is in paralysis. If revenues are shrunken, sure, reduce spending somewhat. But don’t cut off all your outreach or you will be forgotten by an uncaring world. And if your company can’t seem to decide what product to introduce in this tough market, or when to introduce the thing, GET TO WORK ON DECIDING. If sales are down, sell harder. Sweat still works if you combine it with smarts. The fact that the company down the street announces its sales are down 30 percent, or even the fact that your own company’s sales were down 45 percent last quarter, is not adequate reason to assume that you will inevitably match this depressing performance going forward. Expect more, just don’t spend all your mythical earnings yet.

The economy is an orchestra. It does take a combined effort to make sweet music, sure, and we’re an earplug-worthy cacophony right now. But each musician – from Acme Ant Traps to Toyota – has a singular part to play. Your mother was right. Practice your music longer each day, focus, be open to inspiration, and improve your – and all of our – performance.

Churchill: Madam, would you sleep with me for five million pounds?
Socialite: My goodness, Mr. Churchill! Well, I suppose – we would have to discuss terms, naturally.
Churchill: Would you sleep with me for five pounds?
Socialite: Mr. Churchill, what kind of woman do you think I am?!
Churchill: Madam, we’ve already established that. Now we are haggling about the price.

As a business owner, there’s one thing I like about this recession. Just one, I think. And that one thing is this: during “challenging times” (gotta love that phrase) people show you who they are. (And now we are just haggling about the price.) I like to take advantage of these moments of exposure. When people show me who they are, they’re doing me a favor, albeit unwittingly. Here’s a fab-u-lous opportunity to learn who I’m dealing with, and to determine how (and whether) to deal with that person again. In some cases, the phrase “it’ll be a dark day in hell” flashes like neon in front of my brain when thinking about re-engaging with a person. In others, I find a new friend or mentor.

Quiz: Does your boss/client/spouse/”friend” crush you beneath her heel when she finds herself in control? BAD SIGN!

Carefully observe…

The way very privileged people treat service personnel – the best people treat others the best, do they not? – the way employees treat their boss when raises fail to appear or life is crappy (I consider the French trend of holding the boss hostage when he lays you off to be in poor taste, for example), the rabid way Newt Gingrich behaves in the face of a popular Obama administration, and the way partners and spouses treat each other when the pressure is on… these actions and attitudes can all be taken seriously.

Me? I’m really trying to be nice… especially after I hit the “publish” button today!

The entrepreneurial, smaller to mid-size companies are continuing to put up a good fight. They’re either marketing aggressively and continuously, or adding new capabilities such as Web sites to augment their sales efforts. Our largest corporate clients are, in some cases, a different story. More oriented toward detailed budgeting and do-or-die profit projections (as well as being observed by anxious shareholders) their marketing has been somewhat more cautious, with projects going on hold or reduced in scope, and decisions put off by higher-ups until the next quarter or so.

As marketers, of course we’re pro-marketing. You can’t hide your way out of a recession. Silence is NOT golden in this case. However, as strategists, we’re also sympathetic to the way different organizations must do business.

So… what’s quick, affordable and can yield results exciting enough to stimulate the next activity?

Create a single initiative to motivate your customers. Run an End the Recession Promotion. If customers buy a particular new product or open an account, you give them a related gift or incentive… or perhaps a second product free.

Get people together. There’s no better way to laugh in the face of adversity than to make clear that your company is not taking part in any further downturn. Mind you, this get-together is special. It’s one in which you make your new energy, direction or differentiation clear either through an important announcement, an incentive toward buying your newest and greatest offering or a funny and motivational speech directed toward the audience’s interests. Build relationships, and then follow up after the event.

Call the media! Do you have a new product, market or major initiative? Celebrate it with a press conference. Include (as appropriate) product demonstrations, a tour of the manufacturing facility or an introduction to the creative force behind the new idea… you know, like meeting Steve Jobs.

Do it online. Spring clean your Web site. Does your Web site bore even you? Does it look like your Uncle Leon designed it? The Web is very important now as your public face. Use it to inform, inspire, communicate, and (yes!) perhaps even sell. It’s an investment that will pay you back.

Become a thought leader. Write a bylined article (or we’ll do it for you) about where your industry, or its technologies, or consumer demand is going. Publish it in publications that your prospects read. Reprint it and send it out to prospects. Let your salespeople hand it out as yet more evidence of your expertise.

Start a GOOD newsletter. Let it convey what’s new, why customers are lucky to work with you, why now is the time to invest in what you want to sell. Do it at least twice a year. E-news or print… it’s up to you.

Partner with another company. You sell window treatments, they sell windows. For a limited time, customers who buy windows get a 40% discount on any of your fashionable designs!

Add your own idea here. Inaction isn’t useful, but daring outreach is. You’ll be glad, whether in three months, six or a year that you moved aggressively while others did not. What will work for you?

You're prepared for all contingencies... right?

A saying from a friend: “The best boat pump in the world is a sailor with a bucket… in a very leaky boat.”

So true. In the last recession, spanning the years 2000-2001, our company started out with several sales professionals. We ended the recession with just one… that ONE was me. I believe I represented the sailor with a bucket. Who more than the owner of my small company, after all, knew how much bailing how many sales were required? This time around, the entire van Schouwen Associates staff is truly engaged and actively involved in seeking and leveraging all opportunities. In other words, we have more sailors with buckets now. This is better.

Of course, I keep making the mistake of looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is one global representation of the water level in our collective economic boat. The DJIA is currently under 7,000, pretty dismal, eh? I hope by the time I hit the “publish” button for this blog entry, it has gone back up. (Really, aren’t we running out of patience for this?)

You know best what bailing your own boat means to you. Perhaps, literally, it means your job isn’t what it used to be and you need to… sorry… BAIL and get a new one. (Okay, I won’t play with the word “bail” anymore, really. Don’t go. I’ll say “necessity” instead.)

For our company, necessity means we continually strengthen our prospecting and outreach efforts – something I think we’re good at anyway – because we need to keep the phone ringing. To accomplish this, we’re working our butts off. Not to put too fine a point on it.

Good: Pointing out to your offspring that college is very expensive and that excellent careers exist in growing fields like Unemployment Check Printing, Developing Dollar Menus at McDonald’s and the like. Better yet, certain of these careers require only a fifth grade education, so you can also save money on school supplies and clothes from Abercrombie & Fitch by forgoing middle and high school.

Bad: Hoarding your money if you still have a good job and could be supporting the rest of us, for example by buying items we’ve placed in our front yards for sale, or have dangled temptingly before you on eBay. Buy something, wouldya?

Good: Letting your cousin or your brother move into your basement when she or he loses that job Printing Unemployment Checks.

Good: Planning for a dreamy life that isn’t so expensive. My little dream? Waiting tables in the Virgin Islands and living in a hut with a grass roof. Yum. (Okay, sure, it’s just a dream and yes, we’ll turn in your projects next week as promised, dear clients!)

Bad: Trying to shame other people because they have to make an income and thus attempt to charge you a living wage. (“How dare you charge me $4 for a latte? Haven’t you read the news?”) Skip the drama and make your own coffee if that’s the way you feel.

Good: Buying an investment property or investing in stocks. But read Suze Orman’s new book and advice columns first, since I don’t know bupkas about this.

Bad: Assuming this slump will last forever. It won’t, especially if you keep working, buying grass huts and humming a little song as you go through your day.

Please tell us the good and bad recession citizenship examples you’re seeing. All our readers are in the mood to hear them because all anybody talks about anymore is… surprise!… The Great Recession! Cheers.

...dream on.

My sister Molly sent the family an email that read:

Last night I dreamed that I had saved my dream as the wrong file type and I couldn’t open it.

First, I must express my admiration of a dream so terse and still so meaningful. It makes my recurring dream of being lost on Commonwealth Avenue in Boston and knowing I need to walk the 90 miles home in the dark seem… well, rather stale.

More to the point, I think my sister just had the ultimate “I’m stressed and not exactly having the time of my life” dream that deserves the 2009 Great Recession Award.*

(*All credit for the term “Great Recession” is ceded to my older son, Zach.)

When I get stressed, I misplace credit cards, keys and other everyday necessities. Sometimes I misplace them in restaurants or public restrooms, which is unfortunate. My sister, apparently, mis-saves dream files.

When I get stressed, I can lose touch with my aspirations, my joys and my confidence. My sister can’t even dream her damn dream.

On the other hand, don’t you think the mind is a wonderful thing? What a creative way for her brain to say, “Hey kid, you could use some downtime and fun, because life is taking you away from yourself.”

May she open her next dream file with ease.

Scams and inspiration... oh, my brain is full.

Two happenings got me thinking this week.

First, the scam. I got the email from a client. It said Talbots is closing all its stores. And J.Jill. Ann Taylor – 117 stores closing. There was more, but I couldn’t see past the tears. After all, I am slightly petite. 5 feet nothing, actually. And like many women, I’ve learned where I should shop and where I shouldn’t. I should shop at Talbots, Ann Taylor and J.Jill.The good news? The email was a fake. Thank heaven! I figured it out before I emptied the stores of everything I could squeeze into.

Second, the reformation. Last night I attended an outstanding event sponsored in part by a client, FieldEddy Insurance. John Zogby, pollster, spoke about his new book The Way We’ll Be: The Zogby Report on the Transformation of the American Dream. John says Americans will focus less on material things (in part because many of us have gone downhill, shall we say, in financial terms). We’ll want our tombstones to say more than that we spent “37 years in a cubicle.” Also, a million people now approaching 60 will live to be 100! He adds that we’ll NEED to live that long if we want ever to retire.

Seriously, he makes some great points: that more isn’t always meaningful, that we’re tired of fake and want authenticity (he pointed to the Dove ad campaign for real beauty, with ads that feature women with real, lovely but imperfect bodies, as an example of how wildly successful that approach can be). IN FACT, we’re so sick of the meaningless and the trivial that we didn’t care about Bill Ayers or “lipstick on a pig” in the recent election. No, we wanted some real help and a real transformation.

Just one thing, though. Much as I hate to mention it, some people are a wee bit nervous about (shhh) the economy. I, of course, have written blog entries and articles, and have spoken and even dreamed for heaven’s sake about the importance of companies continuing a strong marketing program. And I stand behind that belief, as do (thank you, thank you) our excellent clients.

For fun, though, let’s eavesdrop on a conversation clients and vendors are having, probably worldwide. The vendor could be a consultant or a manufacturer of roller coaster seats … whatever. Insert your own vision.

Client: “Your work is great. Well… it’s good. But we need you to accomplish much more next year and we have to cut the budget.”

Vendor: “Ummmm….”

Client: “Your competition has offered to do the work free.”

Vendor (confused): “Huh?”

Client: “We’re willing to pay you a little bit, but only when we get paid by our suppliers. Sometimes that takes awhile.”

Vendor: “This is not very professional of me, but I have five kids in college and I’m going to have a nervous breakdown.”

Client: “Corporate says we can’t spend much.”

Vendor (defeated): “Well, how much CAN you pay?”

All right, that was disgraceful. If you ever find yourself in that situation, whether as the client or the vendor, remember one word.

COMPROMISE. Compromise means both of you leave the meeting a little unhappy and disappointed.Then again, both of you leave the room a little happy – no real winner can also mean no real loser, true?

In our next episode, the hapless vendor locates her backbone… stay tuned.

Prescient words?

“… because it will not last forever.” Billy Joel wasn’t singing about the U.S. financial system in that melancholy song. But I’m guessing a few investors and small business owners are biting their nails this morning. We’re watching history happen, and the few who rule and get extraordinarily rich hold a big piece of our future in their fingers. As Congress votes on a bailout, voters continue to barrage their elected officials with angry, anxious calls and emails begging them not to reward greedy Wall Street, and not to allow financial CEOs to collect huge golden parachutes as they depart their floundering firms. Many people don’t want this bailout, thinking it “rewards Wall Street.” So now our elected representatives, who to their credit have been hammering away to create a passable plan, must fear for their jobs if they vote for it.

Our grandchildren will read about this crisis. Will they say that “ordinary Americans” and elected representatives were unable to stomach helping out the fat cats and thus led us to a depression? Will our grandchildren learn that citizens weren’t able to understand that when financial institutions crumble, one after one, legions of jobs are lost, retirements are ruined, families can’t get loans for homes or college, and we experience a deep recession or even depression – the kind we’ve all hoped won’t happen in our lifetimes?

Or will we face up, pay the piper (sure, with oversight and safeguards in our plan) and start cleaning up the mess created by the financial wizards and Gods of the Universe? I opt for the bailout. Painful as it is.