Goldman Sachs posted a profit this morning. It was 71 percent lower than the profit for the same quarter last year, to be sure, but it was a profit, in stark contrast to other investment banks who’ve precipitated the Great Skid on Wall Street.

The AP headline read: Goldman posts worst quarter since going public

Not: Goldman posts lower-than-expected profit

Or: Goldman remains in the black last quarter

The selected AP headline works well to add to the doom and gloom, doesn’t it? I’m not advocating being a PollyAnna, but it’s smart to keep a wary eye on the news media which, after all, is in the business of selling its wares. Big, exciting and even horrifying headlines sell. But if we care about our economy, perhaps we could position “somewhat bad news that could be a lot worse” as something else than yet another financial disaster.

It’s great to know that Alan Greenspan recognizes a financial crisis when he sees one. Speaking about the mess that began with the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market and that’s now highlighted by the demise of Lehman Brothers, the sale of Merrill Lynch and the woes of AIG, he informs us that this is a big one, “probably a once in a century event”, that will likely include the failure of more big financial firms. “There’s no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I’ve seen, and it is still not resolved,” he assures us.

Seems to me that Greenspan should be more than a Monday morning quarterback. Such as… responsible in part for our current problems. Didn’t he help inflate the housing bubble by supporting too-low short-term rates  for too long?  Greenspan has said the problem lay not in the loans, but in their repackaging as securities and subsequent sale to investors, but c’mon. Why couldn’t he see that the policies that encouraged reckless lending would come to roost somewhere up the Wall Street food chain?

I’m increasingly disappointed in our “experts,” from Wall Street to the White House, on the election trail and beyond.

Sarah Palin stepped boldly into the arena of foreign relations with two stellar displays of readiness for the presidency while talking with interviewer Charles Gibson yesterday:

• Asked if the U.S. should go to war over the Russian incursion into Georgia, Palin said, “Perhaps so.”

• Asked what she thought about the Bush doctrine, she was apparently unfamiliar with the term and surely so with the doctrine’s bent toward waging preemptive war to prevent potential attacks or related security threats.

Palin Action Figure! Zowie!

Oh, dear. I think I’ll return my new Sarah Palin Action Figure to the store. She looks pretty but she knows almost nothing that would prepare her for said “action.”

Speaking to The Commonwealth Club of California on August 7, 2008, Steve Forbes talks about his support for a flat income tax. I’m not sure that’s such a good idea.

http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=AVtVA48kYYg&feature=user

But he also discusses what has set the U.S. apart – and allowed us to thrive economically – for the past 200 years. He says it’s the secret to our future success, too.

Forbes says the U.S. is the world’s innovation leader.

I agree with him. It certainly won’t be paying low wages leading to low prices that will keep us afloat. It won’t be manufacturing plants that resemble ant farms, with workers living, working and buying goods all in the company “village.” It certainly won’t be blind loyalty to our employing entities.

Just look at your teenage kids, if you have some.

(If you don’t have any, why don’t you stop reading this stuff and go out dancing? Take a cruise?? Celebrate life!) Okay, back to my point. The American teen is nothing if not recalcitrant. You say it, he or she argues. In the U.S., we nurture independent minds, free-thinkers, video game whizzes, kids who challenge their teachers, and sometimes young adults who will come up with ideas we’ve barely considered. These kids are tomorrow’s innovators. As long as we remain a stubbornly independent, quick-to-question-authority people, we may well continue to lead the world in innovation.

It occurs to me that the people who know the most about the financial markets – presumably high-ranking investment/brokerage executives and portfolio managers, Wall Street traders and the like – don’t know very much at all.

This is evidenced by the ostrich-like dealings with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (how many investment professionals kept stacking layers on that flimsy house of cards? How many mutual funds were still heavily invested during the most recent nose-dive?) It was surely feasible to predict this debacle – several years ago, my own father, a retired physics teacher, saw it coming and completely divested his Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae holdings. But the pros couldn’t or wouldn’t face reality. Are they so dumb that short-term greed led to the current market crisis?

Or maybe Wall Street is suffering from mental instability. The wild-eyed thinking that fosters rocketing from exhilaration to panic and back (the Dow is up 2.5% one day, down that much the next) tells us that few traders are thinking much beyond that day’s news flash.

We “small investors” are frequently advised to sit tight and play for the long term. How come the professionals operate in blind reflex thinking?

Could it be that financial market professionals don’t know what in heck the future holds and run scared every day?

That’s comforting. And it affects us all.

I spend time in Vermont, and there’s something so inspiring about the broad valley and mountain views, the stretches of green… I thought I knew all the reasons for Vermont’s beauty, and then I read one of the information center signs the state kindly provides for tourists.

Oh. No billboards.

Vermont, it appears, does not permit these bastions of outdoor advertising.

I’ve been involved in many a billboard design project, I think billboards can be very effective and I often enjoy reading (okay, critiquing) them. And yet. A mostly rural state without billboards is uninterruptedly beautiful.

Which brings me to my point. The Web is a wonderful thing, because it allows us to communicate and market efficiently, without cluttering the landscape (or your mailbox) and it’s even environmentally advantageous by comparison. It won’t wipe out billboards, direct mail or newspapers. But the Web looks smarter as a key marketing tool every day.

Here’s to green mountains.

Sure, I’m way too emotionally involved this election season. But I consider the time and the hand-wringing an investment in my professional tool set, because this year’s presidential campaigns are studies in marketing, and very cynical marketing at that.

Which gets me thinking… how on earth can a communicator be believable when she has something “for sale”?

Personally, I look at everything the candidates and their cohorts do through a glass darkly. Picking Sarah Palin as the Republican Vice Presidential nominee? Don’t get me started about how cynical THAT was – and I so hope the women of America don’t vote for her just because she has XX chromosomes. Obama’s growing sympathy for the gun-totin’, God fearin’ working class? (Didn’t he say something about them clinging bitterly to something? Guess hangin’ around a few town halls in Pennsylvania wised him up…) Even the small stuff: Cindy McCain holding Sarah Palin’s new baby on TV? Awww… but I notice she REALLY doesn’t want that kid to barf on her dress. The cynic in me sees only a photo opp, not brilliantly handled.

Trying to learn from the mistakes of political campaigns… okay, so what about marketing products and services? The same problems can arise – it’s tough getting a cynical audience to believe anything professional PR people and other communicators say – even when it’s absolutely true.

Letting the truth be the point. That will help. The truth looks true. It sounds true. Maybe it’s funny, eye-catching or new. The truth doesn’t shift message just to be expedient. It doesn’t underestimate the intelligence of its audience. It doesn’t pull a bait-and-switch.

When you can’t say something good and true about the product or service you’re selling? No kidding – as a marketer, you should just say no. Save yourself for something worth talking about.

Integrity, over the long term, equals believability. I think it shines through – and that’s where my own cynicism ends.

I’ve become convinced that the world is spinning into a new era. We’re not fussing about “sustainability” and the environment for nothing. Our kids will need incredible skills, not just an education, to get the careers they’ll need if they want to live in a house, drive a car and savor the occasional Ben & Jerry’s pint. And we don’t even need to mention oil prices. Or the roller coaster stock market. Or the U.S. mortgage crisis.

But I don’t feel dismal. Not at all. I’m an optimist, so I’m exploring the boundless potential of creative, out-of-the-box thinking to change – well, anything.

My conclusion is this: conventional thinking isn’t going to cut it for long. Not for leaders or intellectuals or business people or parents, or…

May I suggest a great movie about creative thinking and quantum physics? (don’t be scared; if you know less about physics than I do, I’d be amazed): www.whatthebleep.com

Yikes! Last night, listening to Sarah Palin’s national debut, then the pundits’ unabashed adulation, I felt … so alone. Was I the only person in America who was horrified by her mean-spirited, small-minded speech?

Prime example: Palin mocks Obama for advocating that suspected terrorists, when arrested, be read their rights. And the audience agreed! Big time! Loud boos and vehement nodding of their Uncle Sam top hats made it clear that Ben Franklin’s statement, “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety” is passe. Ouch.

I’m a marketer and a PR professional, so I should be able to understand how the masses think. Why then, as I heard Palin promoting her “hockey Mom” credentials and direly warning the crowd that this is a “world of threats and dangers” best managed by a man who has been tortured, rather than one who hasn’t – why was I so worried that I alone, really alone, think Palin is a horror show?

In the light of today, I’ve encountered more enlightened individuals, none of them toting rifles or wearing the American flag as a costume, who weren’t enthralled by the new candidate. And for that, I am truly grateful.