Archive for September, 2008
This morning I felt guilty about Starbucks…
I’ll bet you haven’t thought about T.S Eliot’s “The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock” in awhile. Okay, maybe ever. But listen to this!
… time yet for a hundred indecisions,
And for a hundred visions and revisions,
Before the taking of a toast and tea.
This morning, standing in line to purchase my $3.52-plus-tip latte, I thought “But we’re going to have a recession! No! A DEPRESSION!” but I bought it anyway because it’s really good. And I’m really tired and, well, feeling a little negative this morning.
But this is how it begins. Do I dare to eat a peach? (Yeah, Prufrock again.) Day to day, most of us trust the government to be foolish BUT NOT THIS FOOLISH. We trust the markets to not shoot down to negative numbers (hmmm, can that happen?)
And then when we find out we’re wrong, we stop buying lattes, we don’t travel as much, we don’t buy that new house. Bosses don’t hire new people, people don’t start new businesses… and the economy tanks. Its engine relies on all of us.
So THAT’S why I’m doing my part. Lattes for the sake of the nation.
Please… do your part. Your government lacks the will!
Shall we throw them out?
To all the representatives who voted against the bailout plan… thanks for nothing.
We’re watching the market drop now. We know you didn’t want your constituents to be angry with you right during – you know – your election campaign. Why? Because you need your job. But your constituents – not all of whom have vast economics knowledge – need their jobs, too, and there’s a good chance many of them will lose those jobs during the next year or more.
Here’s the roll call for today’s vote, so each of us can decide whether our specific elected officials deserve to get on the unemployment lines or toddle back to their seats in Washington.
Meantime, the rest of will redouble our efforts to pay for fuel, put our kids through school and maybe start (once again) saving for retirement.
This is the opinion of a voter, business owner (generally a bit of a free-market capitalist, but I know when to make exceptions), parent, investor, and citizen. And in each of those roles, I am sad, disappointed and, at the moment, disgusted with the House of Representatives. I wish we had heroes. I wish we had good leaders.
“This is the time to remember…”
“… because it will not last forever.” Billy Joel wasn’t singing about the U.S. financial system in that melancholy song. But I’m guessing a few investors and small business owners are biting their nails this morning. We’re watching history happen, and the few who rule and get extraordinarily rich hold a big piece of our future in their fingers. As Congress votes on a bailout, voters continue to barrage their elected officials with angry, anxious calls and emails begging them not to reward greedy Wall Street, and not to allow financial CEOs to collect huge golden parachutes as they depart their floundering firms. Many people don’t want this bailout, thinking it “rewards Wall Street.” So now our elected representatives, who to their credit have been hammering away to create a passable plan, must fear for their jobs if they vote for it.
Our grandchildren will read about this crisis. Will they say that “ordinary Americans” and elected representatives were unable to stomach helping out the fat cats and thus led us to a depression? Will our grandchildren learn that citizens weren’t able to understand that when financial institutions crumble, one after one, legions of jobs are lost, retirements are ruined, families can’t get loans for homes or college, and we experience a deep recession or even depression – the kind we’ve all hoped won’t happen in our lifetimes?
Or will we face up, pay the piper (sure, with oversight and safeguards in our plan) and start cleaning up the mess created by the financial wizards and Gods of the Universe? I opt for the bailout. Painful as it is.
Flying without radar.

In business, as in life, not having a clue what you're doing often ends poorly.
One of the many lessons one could reasonably take away from the Wall Street/Main Street/Bailout debacle is this: It’s dangerous not to understand the intricacies of your work. And if you’re a boss, and you don’t understand these intricacies, you’d better make sure that the people you rely on are on the same page as you. On Wall Street, risk is the name of the game, of course. To a certain extent, risk is inherent in every business enterprise. But the ambient dangers of any business venture (economic factors, competitive pressures, trends that affect the need for your product or service, and all the rest) are sufficient without piling ignorance on top. In the financial sector, we’ve seen a rather pervasive degree of ignorance of factors including:
-What happens when virtually incomprehensible mortgage-backed securities behave badly
-Why a housing bubble might just maybe burst someday
-Why the likely “depth to the bottom” is going to be really, really embarrassing. To say the least.
Now, turning our attention away from Wall Street… the last decade has challenged many businesspeople, especially veterans (yeah, that means old people, like, you know, 40). For many of us, changes in technology alone – whether in computer science, medicine, biotech or the like – have meant long evenings of research or, in some cases, toying with the temptation of early retirement (like, you know, at 40). The fact is that, when managing any career that matters, each of us has to keep our radar turned on, our eyes and ears sharp and our focus firmly on understanding the changing business/tech/financial concepts that, let’s face it, we are duty-bound to master.
Funny is good.

Minnesota Interactive Marketing Association (MIMA) explores brainstorming at its upcoming conference.
Creative brainstorming is a part of what our company does. Oh, it’s not as big a part as interns and other neophytes hope, as evidenced by our laughter when a bright-eyed young interviewee offers, “I can give you great ideas.” (Actually, we were hoping she or he was a whiz with the postage meter, or perhaps calling to collect late payments.)
But, back to the point. Creative brainstorming is crucial, particularly in cases in which the soul of outreach is ear-catching words, innovative graphics, or some virtually unheard-of new interactive approach.
Getting there is fun. Humor and offbeat ideas are a surprising route to the really, really, great idea. Say we’re marketing a new macho product and need a name for it. Generally, someone in our “creative brain trust” ends up laughing so hard his or her stomach hurts, shouting out ridiculousness such as “buzzcut!” or “dude!” until finally, 5,761 completely unusable ideas inspire The Answer.
Our work is serious. Really. But when we want to get to that part of the brain that yields wonderful, original concepts, we need to unleash childlike abandon.
Nice work if you can get it, eh?
The imperial campaign of Sarah Palin.
You’re right if you think I’m picking on Sarah Palin. I don’t like her, and I really don’t like the idea of her being one breath from the presidency.
You know it’s bad when the press threatens not to cover Palin’s events at the UN conference because access to her has been so severely limited that journalists are angry and disgusted. Essentially, Palin’s handlers are allowing only photo opportunities, no questions.
There are two big problems with this:
One, she’s running to be vice president and providing only scripted comments at planned events means that her words come from someone else and that we rarely see how she thinks on her feet… or what she really thinks when left to her own wits.
Two, the reason this is happening is that the McCain campaign doesn’t WANT us to see how she thinks… or what she knows… or, perhaps most of all, what she doesn’t know.
Limiting the damage.
A new American Research Group poll indicates that zero (yes, that’s 0) percent of Americans think the economy is getting better. I suppose the specter of a $700 billion bailout will continue to cast a long shadow on public confidence. There’s a good argument, though, for adopting a certain dogged optimism. At the risk of sounding like McCain when he recently said the economy’s fundamentals were sound (oops), I’ve been through enough downturns to know that our economy is a massive machine with great momentum. Further, I think our emotions play a big role, and that “group negativity” deepens and extends periods of economic gloom. For example, as a business owner who works with corporate clients, I remember well that 9/11 was almost immediately followed by a freeze in corporate decision-making and an end to many marketing outreach programs. Why? Fear. Certainly, the economy was already in a tech bust, and 9/11 was terrifying. But I strongly believe that we worsened our situation by, in too many cases, putting the brakes on normal activity. I virtually never think George W. Bush is correct, but when he told Americans to “go out shopping” after the attacks, I reluctantly agreed with the motive behind the message. I didn’t want our economy to be yet another victim.
I think we’re at another turning point. The financial mess the U.S. and the world have gotten into is bad, of course. However, my firm’s clients are still selling a lot of products, I’m still buying groceries and shoes, and, as I look around, I see some people are still buying homes and getting new jobs. Let’s keep a sense that we can empower ourselves. Let’s also assume that the sky isn’t actually falling, just sagging. Let’s assume the stock market will lurch back into a positive trend over time. As business people, consumers and human beings, I believe we have the power to keep ourselves moving forward economically – despite it all.
I remember: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
… Only this time I’ve started worrying it’s me that’s stupid… okay, maybe not stupid exactly, but ill-equipped to be an investor in these times. Not that my concern will stop me – My greed (oh, must I call it that?) outweighs my caution when it comes to stocks and mutual funds.

Remember poor Mr. Bill from SNL? He's been investing. "Ooooh nooo!"
But here’s what scares me. Commentators such as Andy Serwer, speaking with Anderson Cooper on CNN, postulate that the market has become so complex, with its derivatives, complex mortgage securities and arcane computer modeling, that even the top people at investment banks and other firms DON’T COMPLETELY UNDERSTAND THE INSTRUMENTS and how they’ll work. Kind of like artificial intelligence gone mad… or Frankenstein’s monster… Ooooh nooo!
Age 12, creativity unlimited.
Well, it’s not just the sun that’s brilliant… William Yuan, age 12, from Portland Oregon just invented a revolutionary solar cell (12 year old invents solar cell).
Imagine thinking about solar cells, to this level of detail, at age 12. Imagine following through and inventing a new one. It’s one step toward viable use of solar energy. From a seventh grader.
Agility: business, watch the candidates and learn…
It’s been nearly impossible to tear my eyes away from the computer as of late, because the news is as engaging as… a train wreck. We have financial giants on their knees begging for federal assistance. Plus candidates wriggling to get into new, advantageous positions vis a vis each day’s hot issues.
Well, the candidates take it a little far, and tend to be transparent at times. Since yesterday, McCain and Obama have become deeply, deeply concerned about regulating Wall Street. Also, McCain has shrugged off his “experience matters” overcoat to embrace the clearly untested Palin. Obama is sweating to shed his image as an “elitist” and become dearer to the working folks whose votes he so badly needs.
Sure, it’s nauseating to watch. (I said “train wreck”, did I not?) At the same time, I think our illustrious candidates have a lesson for Wall Street.
Think fast! Act quickly! Change when conditions demand it. And most of all, stay agile. Sinking behomoths like AIG are simply too massive and sleepy to respond promptly when market conditions demand.
Responsiveness is one area in which smaller businesses, or larger ones with smaller, “independent” units, have the winning edge. Although maintaining more credibility than a politician…. is good too!





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